GuidesHousing

What a state average hides about where you are moving

By Shawn Siokos, Mortgage Loan Officer, NMLS #2008044

A statewide median is a real number and it is almost never a description of the place you are going. The spread between the cheapest and dearest metro inside a single large state is routinely wider than the spread between the highest and lowest state in the country, so two people making the same state-to-state move can have completely different experiences of it. The fix is not to distrust the state figure. It is to know which question it answers.

  • California's 25 metros run El Centro at $1,056 to San Jose at $2,840, a spread of about 169%.
  • Every state median in the country runs West Virginia at $872 to California at $2,036, a spread of about 133%. Put those two lines next to each other.
  • 253 of 387 metros sit below their own state's median rent, which is not the half you would expect.
  • Property tax varies inside a state too, and by more than people assume: Texarkana at 0.89% to El Paso at 2.03% in Texas.

One state can span more than the whole country

Across all 51 jurisdictions, median gross rent runs West Virginia at $872 to California at $2,036, a spread of about 133%. That is the full national range at state level, and it is the range every state-to-state comparison, including the ones on this site, is built on.

Now take one state. California's 25 metros run El Centro at $1,056 to San Jose at $2,840, a spread of about 169%. The distance from one end of California to the other is wider than the distance from the cheapest state in the country to the most expensive one.

It is not only California. Nationally the metros run Johnstown, Pennsylvania at $739 to San Jose, California at $2,840, which is wider at both ends than the state range above. Every one of those places sits inside a state whose median lands somewhere in the middle of it.

Most metros are not their own state

Here is the part that catches people. 253 of 387 metros have a median rent below their own state's. That is not a coincidence and it is not an error: a state's median gross rent is the median across renter households, and most renter households are in the large metros, so the large metros pull the state figure up towards themselves.

The practical consequence is that a state median describes the biggest city in the state rather more closely than it describes the state. Only 157 of 387 metros are within ten percent of their own state's figure.

The extremes are worth seeing, because they are ordinary places rather than curiosities. Furthest above their own state: Bozeman +57% against Montana, San Jose +39% against California, Charleston +36% against South Carolina and Hilton Head Island +33% against South Carolina. Furthest below: El Centro -48% against California, Utica -43% against New York, Binghamton -42% against New York and Johnstown -39% against Pennsylvania.

Somebody moving to one of those places and reading their state's figure is not slightly off. They are working from a number that belongs to somewhere else.

Property tax is the one people get most wrong

This matters more than the rent version, because property tax is where the whole no-income-tax argument is usually settled. The standard version of it runs: a state with no income tax funds itself through property instead, so check the property tax rate before you count the saving. That is sound advice, and it is normally given as a single state number.

Texas is the state it is given about most often. Its statewide effective rate is 1.49%. Across its metros the same figure runs Texarkana at 0.89% to El Paso at 2.03%. The statewide number sits between two ends that are nothing like each other.

New York spreads almost entirely upward from its statewide figure: Watertown at 1.54% to Rochester at 2.51%, against a statewide 1.55%, so its low end is roughly the state number and its high end is nowhere near it. Ohio spreads in both directions: Lima at 1.12% to Cleveland at 1.67%, against 1.31%.

Property tax is levied and set locally, by counties, cities and school districts. A state figure for it is an average of thousands of separate decisions, and the variation it averages away is frequently larger than the difference between two states. If the property tax line is what decides your move, the state number is the beginning of that question rather than the answer to it.

Which figure answers which question

None of this makes state figures useless. They answer a specific question well: what changes about a household's costs when it crosses a state line, holding everything else roughly constant. Income tax, sales tax and the rules you file under really are set at state level and really do have no local version.

Use the state figure to decide whether a state is worth considering at all, and to understand the tax position, which is genuinely statewide. Use a metro figure the moment you have a shortlist, because housing, everyday prices and property tax are all local and the state number has already blended them.

The order matters. Working state-first and then narrowing is fast and rarely wrong. Working from a state figure straight to a decision about a specific city is where people arrive somewhere considerably more expensive than they had planned for.

What this site does about it

The comparison tool takes metros as well as states, 387 of them, and the pair pages exist at metro level as well as state level for the same reason. Where a metro straddles a state line it has to borrow income and sales tax from one side or the other, because those are set by state law and have no metro equivalent, and it asks you which.

Everything else is genuinely local and is measured locally: housing, income, everyday prices, and property tax derived per metro from what households there actually pay against what their homes are worth. That last one is the reason the ranges on this page exist to be shown at all.

Compare your own move

General information about moving costs, not financial, tax or legal advice. Figures are statewide medians and averages from public federal data and will not match any particular household. Tax rules change and vary by circumstance; check anything that matters with a professional who knows your situation.